The Daily Advisor: April 17, 2024
Three Things To Know Today
1. Tell Your Story – We Want to Hear From You!
We want to share how you are making a difference in your communities so we can celebrate and elevate the great accomplishments we make together. Visit fhlbc.com to see examples of how other members are making an impact and submit your information in the form share your story with us!
2. Navigating Your Balance Sheet in a Falling Rate Environment
In the wake of a tumultuous 2023 that featured the most aggressive rate hiking cycle in nearly 36 years, the economic outlook has started to shift - including a shift in the expected rate cuts and dot plot. In our white paper, we break down strategies for how you can manage your balance sheet in a falling rate environment.
3. April 25 | Next Institutional Insights Webinar
Join our FHLBank Chicago Solutions team on April 25 for our Institutional Insights Webinar. In our April presentation, we will focus on current market trends, rates, and an update on the economy as Q2 gets underway.
Market Commentary
Equities were mixed while U.S. Treasuries extended their sell-off as Federal Reserve (Fed) comments further reduced rate cut expectations. Yields moved modestly higher during a quiet overnight session. They continued to drift higher throughout the trading day as Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that more time is needed for the current policy to make progress towards the long run inflation target. The probability of a rate cut at the June meeting fell to 15% from 20% according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Housing starts fell 14.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.321M in March, missing consensus expectations. Building permits also declined in March, further contributing to the housing market supply constraints. Permits decreased 4.3% month-over-month to an annualized rate of 1.458M.
Industrial production increased 0.4% in March. The increase was in line with expectations and matched February's upwardly revised 0.4% increase. Utilities increased 2.0% during the month while manufacturing output rose 0.5%. This was partially offset by a 1.4% decline in mining.